Is AFFINITY dead?

[Winsome]

15 hours ago, KC Honie said:

Edit:  I spent way too many years in the business world.  I have to stress that I have NO inside information about anything having to do with Serif.  But based on their behavior, i) delayed app updates, ii) missing apps that need to be in the portfolio, iii) the discussion of transitioning to a subscription model, I suspect that they are in discussions to be acquired.  There are a number of potential strategic buyers that make sense, I won't bother speculating who, but it would not surprise me if we see an announcement at some point.

Disagree. Serif is a small company that uses other companies' technologies and algorithms to the maximum (and that's what they got awards for from Apple and Microsoft), but they are not a high-tech company. They don't have much you can buy. No one is acquiring Serif, and there are no competitors threatened by their products. Serif lives comfortably on the small designer's scarcity of resources and on micro firms perhaps. The big money is elsewhere. If anyone should buy Serif, it's Magix... but Serif is unlikely to return to being a company with pushy and untrustworthy telemarketers and all that goes with it. It's a more dignified and satisfying image and brand Serif has created for itself since Affinity was marketed.

Serif asking their customers about willingness to other payment models is probably more a sign that the old pay once use forever model doesn't keep companies alive in the long run anymore. Not even Serif. They would do well to think about the future and to consult customers about what they want and what they are willing to accept. 

People are so hell-bent on cursing Adobe for the subscription model, but the whole market is heading there. And it's not because of greed, but because everyone needs a stable income, not to mention stability as a business beyond 12 months. You don't survive like an Asian street food kitchen from month to month. This is serious business for the company and the employees! When the market is saturated, companies need to feed somewhere. We will not be satisfied with a perpetual product from a company that only exists in the history books. If only subscription prices could find a decent rent, more people would find it a natural business model. Old days are not coming back.

However, I think Serif is doing okay and that they don't need to rush. With all the customers in here who buy the programs on sale and don't seem to have the desire or the money to spend more money on better alternatives, I think Serif knows full well that their customer base isn't leaving them just yet.

[KC Honie]

1 hour ago, Winsome said:

Disagree. Serif is a small company that uses other companies' technologies and algorithms to the maximum (and that's what they got awards for from Apple and Microsoft), but they are not a high-tech company. They don't have much you can buy. No one is acquiring Serif, and there are no competitors threatened by their products. Serif lives comfortably on the small designer's scarcity of resources and on micro firms perhaps. The big money is elsewhere. If anyone should buy Serif, it's Magix... but Serif is unlikely to return to being a company with pushy and untrustworthy telemarketers and all that goes with it. It's a more dignified and satisfying image and brand Serif has created for itself since Affinity was marketed.

Serif asking their customers about willingness to other payment models is probably more a sign that the old pay once use forever model doesn't keep companies alive in the long run anymore. Not even Serif. They would do well to think about the future and to consult customers about what they want and what they are willing to accept. 

People are so hell-bent on cursing Adobe for the subscription model, but the whole market is heading there. And it's not because of greed, but because everyone needs a stable income, not to mention stability as a business beyond 12 months. You don't survive like an Asian street food kitchen from month to month. This is serious business for the company and the employees! When the market is saturated, companies need to feed somewhere. We will not be satisfied with a perpetual product from a company that only exists in the history books. If only subscription prices could find a decent rent, more people would find it a natural business model. Old days are not coming back.

However, I think Serif is doing okay and that they don't need to rush. With all the customers in here who buy the programs on sale and don't seem to have the desire or the money to spend more money on better alternatives, I think Serif knows full well that their customer base isn't leaving them just yet.

I can think of 4 right off the top of my head that would be good acquirers and a few that would be good targets. (But acquisitions are exceedingly hard to make work, with 80% outright failing). Regardless this is probably the path to survival.

Serif does not have the bandwidth to complete the needed features to their existing products much less the capacity to add the needed products to  their suite.

I do understand their need to generate a consistent revenue stream, I suspect that they will quickly transition to a subscription model as well. As you so aptly pointed out the customer base is cheap and will not tolerate much of a subscription cost. Surely Serif knows that the Affinity apps should be at rev 3.x right now, having generated two major upgrade events.  They also need to abandon MAS, but that is another discussion altogether.

Not all of the customer base is $$$ oriented, when I left Adobe, LR was a hot mess and its future direction was in question (Adobe royally screwed up the strategy for LR and had to do a hard about face, once again that is for another discussion).  I transitioned to C1P and loved the app, they then lost their way, but with the new leadership they are back stronger than ever.  Neither Serif nor C1 have tight integration with the needed companion apps. Adobe does.  I am happy to pay Adobe's subscription rate to have access to a credible solution.

So a frugal customer base not willing to pay for ongoing feature and new app development does not bode well for a long-term stand alone company...

[ATP]

I really don't understand the hard on some of you have for Serif getting bought out, it'd ruin the software.

1 hour ago, Winsome said:

If only subscription prices could find a decent rent, more people would find it a natural business model. Old days are not coming back.

Two reason against this:

1. A subscription is a no-go, pay forever or get locked out of all your work. It's going to be a no from me.

2. As a hobbyist I'd never pay for any software by subscription I use one to two times a month, simply doesn't make sense.

[fdelaneau]

4 hours ago, KC Honie said:

Or take Capture One's tact and publish a product roadmap, then people can make informed decisions.

A roadmap would be really nice but it isn't always possible.

I have a SAS product on the way and we plan to publish a partial roadmap showing only the features we are currently working on without any deadline. After giving it some thought, showing our complete list just doesn't makes sense as we don't know when we will get there and this will only build frustrations.

[Winsome]

3 hours ago, ATP said:

I really don't understand the hard on some of you have for Serif getting bought out, it'd ruin the software.

Two reason against this:

1. A subscription is a no-go, pay forever or get locked out of all your work. It's going to be a no from me.

2. As a hobbyist I'd never pay for any software by subscription I use one to two times a month, simply doesn't make sense.

"Me" and "I" -  we are dealing with these numbers and a company.

I am not arguing against or for one business model or the other. Just telling that one business model can be unsustainable under the conditions of the time. 

Further, Serif may be under pressure to expand in order to develop and maintain its product portfolio. After all, they are practically at a standstill, and Publisher is a legend in the field of delays. Should they raise the price to a level no hobbyist will pay, or will they make the expense bearable by making it monthly?

I'm pretty sure the clientele Serif already has is pretty familiar with buying on credit and installments.

In any case, Serif has probably wised up to their business model and what they can and can't do, and their rather bloated marketing has probably put them in a place where it's time to deliver. No more talk.

[ATP]

1 minute ago, Winsome said:

"Me" and "I" -  we are dealing with these numbers and a company.

I'm actually a customer and that's why I state my opinion, seven billion people don't matter when they aren't customers and having a premium price when the tools don't live up to the hype won't make any new customers.

3 minutes ago, Winsome said:

I'm pretty sure the clientele Serif already has is pretty familiar with buying on credit and installments.

Why sound like a snobbish asshat? Good way to make your point mate.

[Winsome]

4 hours ago, KC Honie said:

Serif does not have the bandwidth to complete the needed features to their existing products much less the capacity to add the needed products to  their suite.

This is unfortunately more and more evident, and it has been even very evident on the quality of the features that came via the free updates. When you are a customer of products from even smaller companies that are far better algorithmically, ambitiously and in terms of completeness, it has been almost unreal at times. 

Quote

They also need to abandon MAS, but that is another discussion altogether.

MAS?

Quote

So a frugal customer base not willing to pay for ongoing feature and new app development does not bode well for a long-term stand alone company...

Correct. Now Serif can lie awake at night wondering how many will upgrade to 2.0 and in the future to 3.0 if so many are happy with 1.x and don't want to invest more.

And how many have bought Photo or Designer at a discount because it was so cheap they couldn't say no, and never really used it. They probably wont upgrade, ever.

[R C-R]

2 minutes ago, Winsome said:

Quote

They also need to abandon MAS, but that is another discussion altogether.

MAS?

Mac App Store. Built into every recent (& not so recent) version of the Mac OS, so there is a pretty good business reason to sell through that store. Adobe among others also sells some of its apps through that store for the same reason.

[Winsome]

20 minutes ago, ATP said:

I'm actually a customer and that's why I state my opinion, seven billion people don't matter when they aren't customers and having a premium price when the tools don't live up to the hype won't make any new customers.

It's obvious, but even though it's popular on the internet and at the moment to start from oneself, we're talking about the forces Serif has to navigate in and through. I know perfectly well what you and others in here think and will do, but the sum of everything points to what Serif will do.

Quote

Why sound like a snobbish asshat? Good way to make your point mate.

I simply don't think you know how many people buy many of their things on credit. I have credit scored people who applied for credit. A flood of applications per day. And let's see how world trends affect that need, do you think fewer are buying on credit in a year?

Many simply have to, and when people get used to renting, leasing and subscribing to things, including software, it becomes the new normal. It's an attitude that will change. All good mobile and iPad apps right now are on subscription. 

I'm sure many who won't spend more than a small amount of money on their software are from a segment of the population that has also tried buying something on credit at some point. 

[dcr]

I keep thinking about this and wonder where Serif would even set a subscription price at.  They only have three applications and, from what I recall, there aren't any additional ones that have been publicly announced.  So, three apps.  Do you charge $9.95/mo. per app?  If you use three apps, that's about $30 per month.  For $25 more, you could switch to Adobe and have access to all their apps.  If you only need one Affinity app, do you want to pay $9.95/mo. when the more full-featured Adobe alternative is only $21/mo.?  And, if Serif goes for $4.95/mo. for all three apps, they'd be further ahead to sell each app at $54 and include a full year of updates.  Release a new version each year of each app people can choose whether or not to upgrade.

When Adobe still sold software, you might pay $600 to $800 per application.  I don't remember the numbers, but I think the Creative Suites were around $1200 and the Master Collection around $2000?  And people bought them.

I have all three Affinity apps.  And they were like $49 each and probably many people, like me, got them during a Black Friday or other sale when they were around $29 or something.  And that was one-time for each.  People I know that switched to Affinity didn't do it because the apps were $49 but because they didn't want to be locked into a subscription.  A good number would probably have paid $99, $199 or whatever (if the apps were more on par with Adobe).

I would imagine they could go to $99 per app and still do well.  Possibly they could do the regular versions at $54 each and the pro versions at $99 each.  Or more.

I tend to think they could do better by not going down the subscription route and raise prices and release new paid versions more often (with a discount for existing users).  I think a subscription might just send more people back to Adobe.  If I were to no longer have a choice but to subscribe to software, why wouldn't I go back to what the majority of people are using?

[RichardMH]

7 hours ago, KC Honie said:

All very astute statements, C1P'a raw develop engine is lightyears ahead of any others that I have tried, including Adobe's Camera Raw and the Raw Develop engine in AP.  In previous posts I have lamented the need to for Serif to up their game dramatically in their raw engine. I would have stayed with Affinity tools (I like personas) if there was a way for me to seamlessly do production photo editing, there is not.  I realize that I am part of a shrinking  demographic (photographer) so probably not going to get much love from Serif.

I'm also a photographer and like you feel a bit neglected. I use C1 express for Raw conversions, Topaz image quality suite for noise reduction, sharpening and resizing, and 3D LUT Creator for more advanced colour work. I understand APhoto can't match Topaz or 3D LUT Creator as either alone costs more than APhoto and incorporating them would put us in C1 Pro or DxO Photolab territory cost wise. I run APhoto on my PC and other software on my mac laptop. On the laptop I really miss the flexibility of APhoto. APhoto lets me use a Photoshop editing style and all the educational support associated with that. The improvements to APhoto I'd like to see are better integration with other raw engines, better plugin support, better masking and decent macro programming.

[KC Honie]

13 hours ago, dcr said:

I keep thinking about this and wonder where Serif would even set a subscription price at.  They only have three applications and, from what I recall, there aren't any additional ones that have been publicly announced.  So, three apps.  Do you charge $9.95/mo. per app?  If you use three apps, that's about $30 per month.  For $25 more, you could switch to Adobe and have access to all their apps.  If you only need one Affinity app, do you want to pay $9.95/mo. when the more full-featured Adobe alternative is only $21/mo.?  And, if Serif goes for $4.95/mo. for all three apps, they'd be further ahead to sell each app at $54 and include a full year of updates.  Release a new version each year of each app people can choose whether or not to upgrade.

When Adobe still sold software, you might pay $600 to $800 per application.  I don't remember the numbers, but I think the Creative Suites were around $1200 and the Master Collection around $2000?  And people bought them.

I have all three Affinity apps.  And they were like $49 each and probably many people, like me, got them during a Black Friday or other sale when they were around $29 or something.  And that was one-time for each.  People I know that switched to Affinity didn't do it because the apps were $49 but because they didn't want to be locked into a subscription.  A good number would probably have paid $99, $199 or whatever (if the apps were more on par with Adobe).

I would imagine they could go to $99 per app and still do well.  Possibly they could do the regular versions at $54 each and the pro versions at $99 each.  Or more.

I tend to think they could do better by not going down the subscription route and raise prices and release new paid versions more often (with a discount for existing users).  I think a subscription might just send more people back to Adobe.  If I were to no longer have a choice but to subscribe to software, why wouldn't I go back to what the majority of people are using?

C1 offers either a perpetual license or a subscription, your choice.  I use the perpetual license but usually upgrade every other yearly cycle...

I suspect each Affinity app will be ~$3.99 US per month and all three will be $9.99 ish per month...

[KC Honie]

18 hours ago, RichardMH said:

I'm also a photographer and like you feel a bit neglected. I use C1 express for Raw conversions, Topaz image quality suite for noise reduction, sharpening and resizing, and 3D LUT Creator for more advanced colour work. I understand APhoto can't match Topaz or 3D LUT Creator as either alone costs more than APhoto and incorporating them would put us in C1 Pro or DxO Photolab territory cost wise. I run APhoto on my PC and other software on my mac laptop. On the laptop I really miss the flexibility of APhoto. APhoto lets me use a Photoshop editing style and all the educational support associated with that. The improvements to APhoto I'd like to see are better integration with other raw engines, better plugin support, better masking and decent macro programming.

100% agree on the raw engine issue, there is a learning curve to move between raw developers.

I posted a couple of years ago that if Serif would create, a credible highly integrated [with AP] C1/LR competitor with a built in DAM, I would switch immediately from C1.  All because of the raw engine integration with AP. That did not and apparently will not happen. Adobe's photo plan is $US20/month which includes LR and PS (cheaper than C1's subscription).  I have already repurchased the subscription and over the next year will transition completely back to adobe...  Therefore I will not be do a perpetual license upgrade nor a subscription to Affinity apps, of course I am just one user and they could care less.  But at least I am a data point...

Edit: I hate to transition away from C1P, its raw developer is so much better than anyone else's, but I am doing it because of workflow... (Plus C1P is stupid expensive)

 

[KC Honie]

19 hours ago, R C-R said:

Mac App Store. Built into every recent (& not so recent) version of the Mac OS, so there is a pretty good business reason to sell through that store. Adobe among others also sells some of its apps through that store for the same reason.

The challenge with MAS is that Apple takes up to 30% off the top and all updates within a revision, i.e., 1.x, 2.x etc must be free...  So to rev to 2.x Serif must in essence release a new AP product. (I suspect Serif is paying closer to 15%).  Two of my Affinity apps came from MAS and one direct.  If I were to update in the future, I would do them all direct...

I stopped buying from the MAS some time ago, I prefer for the developer to get the revenue that Apple skims...

[Bad_Wolf]

I gladly will pay an affordable monthly subscription fee for using Affinity Designer, Photo and Publisher if that brings a reliable future to the Affinity range. All  those years of free updates, I could not understand how Serif could make profits.

My concern with the delay of version 2 was not the features but about the revenue which comes in. It is still a mistery for me how they could manage so many years developing on free updates.

So will I pay for a monthly subscription if that saves the future of Serif. I surely will!

Chris

[R C-R]

2 hours ago, KC Honie said:

The challenge with MAS is that Apple takes up to 30% off the top and all updates within a revision, i.e., 1.x, 2.x etc must be free...

But how much would Serif have to spend on promotion & advertising to Mac users if they quit selling through the MAS? One reason so many developers (Adobe included) sell through the MAS is it is a very effective way to reach just about every Mac user.

As for free upgrades, Apple does not require that major revisions (like from 1.x to 2.x) must be free, just updates. Besides Serif is unlikely to offer anybody free upgrades from V1 to V2 & they have been adamant that all 1.x updates will continue to be free, so for that it does not matter which store they are purchased from.

[R C-R]

2 hours ago, Bad_Wolf said:

All  those years of free updates, I could not understand how Serif could make profits.

They make their profits on sales, so as long as people keep buying the apps in sufficient numbers they can keep afloat.

[KC Honie]

1 hour ago, R C-R said:

But how much would Serif have to spend on promotion & advertising to Mac users if they quit selling through the MAS? One reason so many developers (Adobe included) sell through the MAS is it is a very effective way to reach just about every Mac user.

As for free upgrades, Apple does not require that major revisions (like from 1.x to 2.x) must be free, just updates. Besides Serif is unlikely to offer anybody free upgrades from V1 to V2 & they have been adamant that all 1.x updates will continue to be free, so for that it does not matter which store they are purchased from.

Thats is what I said, intra-revision updates are required to be free inter-revisions you can charge for but it also has to be a new release.

In actuality Apple is trying to stem the flow of developers from leaving the MAS…

So you need to read the thread before commenting, it has already been discussed that the Affinity apps should currently be at v3.x having been through two major paid upgrade cycles… They have not…

[R C-R]

18 minutes ago, KC Honie said:

Thats is what I said, intra-revision updates are required to be free inter-revisions you can charge for but it also has to be a new release.

How is this any different from buying the Affinity apps through the Affinity or MS Store?

[thomaso]

1 hour ago, R C-R said:

But how much would Serif have to spend on promotion & advertising to Mac users if they quit selling through the MAS? One reason so many developers (Adobe included) sell through the MAS is it is a very effective way to reach just about every Mac user.

Why that? If someone wants to find software the MAS is neither necessary nor the best way for a research procedure with e.g. tests, comparisons, deep info etc. In that way other media appear a lot more important than the MAS, in particular for "professional" software rather than for entertainment (game, music) or for "single" tasks (learn a language, specify flowers, calculate etc). So I wonder how the MAS should be able to "reach just about every Mac user" concerning a certain type of app and clients – or whether the MAS just reaches "everyone" in a more general sense, e.g. by forcing Mac users to have an Apple ID and to visit the MAS for macOS versions.

I rather assume special magazines and websites are places that do reach more users who are interested in a special topic. The MAS is more a chaotic warehouse than a pool for structured information. For a purchase it is not required if a developer has its own shop or distribution channel.

[KC Honie]

2 hours ago, R C-R said:

How is this any different from buying the Affinity apps through the Affinity or MS Store?

🙄

[R C-R]

2 hours ago, thomaso said:

If someone wants to find software the MAS is neither necessary nor the best way for a research procedure with e.g. tests, comparisons, deep info etc. ...

It isn't necessary but it is a very easy 'one stop' way to find apps that are guaranteed to be compatible with the Mac they are using to access the MAS, see user ratings & reviews, find links to the developer's website & support forums like this one, make a secure 'one click' purchase, & of course since Apple is distributing it they can be confident it is free of malware. Many MAS apps including all the Affinity ones support family sharing, which can be an important consideration for some users.

MAS app updates can also be set to auto-download & install with zero user intervention & also to auto-install MAS apps purchased on other Macs tied to the same Apple ID.

So if nothing else, the convenience of buying through the MAS is a powerful incentive for a large part of the user base.

[thomaso]

5 hours ago, R C-R said:

apps that are guaranteed to be compatible with the Mac they are using to access the MAS

This maybe relevant for many apps, in particular those which may contain malware "by design" (on purpose). I assume developers of "large" apps (~for "professional" use) have a major interest by themself to offer malware free downloads. It may be naive but for those companies I simply trust my expectation.

The fact that the MAS contains various apps for different types of "system cleaning", which on the other hand are recommended by Apple not to be used to avoid possible conflicts with macOS security features, reduces the reliability of the MAS in my eyes. Also, there is no guarantee that malware offers in the MAS are prevented 100 %. e.g.: https://www.wired.com/story/apple-app-store-malware-click-fraud/

Considering that I don't buy software on a regular, daily or weekly basis, the advantage of "everything in one place + everything Mac compatible" in MAS is reduced for me. I don't find it a disadvantage to check the system requirements on a developer's website when I want to buy software like Affinity. I would even say, regardless of availability in MAS, I visit the developer's website and/or read articles in other sources before buying.

7 hours ago, R C-R said:

Many MAS apps including all the Affinity ones support family sharing, which can be an important consideration for some users.

This indeed can make a massive difference for these group of users who share software this way. I did not know that it does work with apps, too, not with music only.

Are you sure that family sharing works with Affinity apps, too? Does this mean that the Affinity purchased via the MAS is a different product in terms of license / access rights than the one purchased via the Serif Store? Can Affinity from the MAS be installed on an unlimited number of computers of a specific user (same Apple ID) as is possible for the Serif Store version – and then additionally be accessible to several users (different Apple ID) via family share on each of these computers?

[R C-R]

1 hour ago, thomaso said:

I assume developers of "large" apps (~for "professional" use) have a major interest by themself to offer malware free downloads. It may be naive but for those companies I simply trust my expectation.

Yes, of course the developers have a vested interest in distributing malware-free apps, but they cannot prevent dodgy sites from spoofing users into believing they are purchasing direct from the developer when they are not, nor can users be sure their financial info will be secure even if they are buying direct from the developer. For MAS purchases everything is done directly through Apple, so the chances of any kind of compromise are extremely low.

1 hour ago, thomaso said:

Are you sure that family sharing works with Affinity apps, too?

Yes, 100% sure, both from what the Affinity pages in the MAS say & from personal experience -- AD & AP are installed on my wife's Mac via Family Sharing. 

1 hour ago, thomaso said:

Can Affinity from the MAS be installed on an unlimited number of computers of a specific user (same Apple ID) as is possible for the Serif Store version – and then additionally be accessible to several users (different Apple ID) via family share on each of these computers?

Yes, provided the terms about commercial use are followed, you could indeed install Affinity on say 10 of your own computers & also via Family Sharing on the Mac(s) up to 5 other family members.

[thomaso]

1 hour ago, R C-R said:

2 hours ago, thomaso said:

Can Affinity from the MAS be installed on an unlimited number of computers of a specific user (same Apple ID) as is possible for the Serif Store version – and then additionally be accessible to several users (different Apple ID) via family share on each of these computers?

Yes, provided the terms about commercial use are followed, you could indeed install Affinity on say 10 of your own computers & also via Family Sharing on the Mac(s) up to 5 other family members.

Ah, I haven't been aware of this differentiation between commercial vs private use, which appears to allow also for Serif Store purchases (without MAS) to get installed for other users and their private use: https://affinity.serif.com/en-gb/licence/ 

(i) if you are a private individual, to download, install, use and run for personal use, one (1) copy of the Serif Software directly on each computer running macOS (“Mac Computer”) that you personally own or control. Commercial use is permitted but only use by you and not by any other users of any Mac Computers that you own or control. For example, other members of your household that use your Mac Computers may make personal use of the Serif Software whereas, if anyone other than yourself needs to make commercial use of the Serif Software, the other user will need to make a separate purchase.

That means, a MAS purchase "just" reduces via the macOS 'family share' feature the number of separate installation procedures for additional users on one computer, while both, MAS + Serif Store purchase do allow family sharing, – correct?

This makes me wonder why an installed Serif Store purchase does not by default occur in the applications folder for other users but requires an extra installation process for other users on the same hardware? Just to avoid possible multi-use in commercial companies for the rather seldom cases that several designers work on 1 mac only?